Accomplishing the things that can easily and inexpensively be done now
The global consensus to combat rapid Climate Change has gained steam throughout much of the world over the last decade. With the general exception of those countries whose economies are highly dependent on the extraction and sale of fossil fuels, most countries now strive to reduce their dependency on fossil fuels and reduce Greenhouse gas emissions. Popular movements such as “Fridays for Future” and the fossil fuel divestment movement are also putting pressure on governments and corporations to move forward. One problem inherent to the environmental movement has, however, traditionally been the dogma that “doing something about the environment” means heavily curtailing the modern technologies and lifestyles that most in the industrialized world have become accustomed to. The often unspoken part of this dogma of sacrifice has been that the many billions of people living in developing nations like India, China, and Indonesia would never be able to achieve a standard of living similar to the one enjoyed by those of us who have the luxury of living in an industrialized nation. This is simply just plain not realistic, not fair, and will likely lead to inevitable failure, if the approach focuses too much on having less rather than having a comfortable and sustainable lifestyle that has a low impact on the environment.
Clean technologies have advanced at a breathtaking pace over the last decade. So fast, in fact, that many people have a hard time keeping up with the sheer pace and scale of the advances. And there is little reason to believe that this rate of advance will slow down. To the contrary, it is likely to speed up. We thus find ourselves in a situation that is very different from the situation that the environmental movements grew out of in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and even the first decade of the 2000s. Tesla battery-electric vehicles are now better in many metrics than ICE(internal combustion engine) vehicles, solar power is easily and quickly deployable on a large scale, and onshore wind power easily beats out competing fossil fuel energy sources, even where the wind is only rated as moderately good. This leap in technology allows for an approach that would have been hard and expensive in the past. Rather than focusing on policies that require everyone to greatly scale down their lifestyles, we now have the opportunity to make tremendous progress in transforming our economies into clean energy economies by picking the proverbial low-hanging fruit.
The late Hermann Scheer, a visionary thinker in regards to renewable energy technology and development, was acutely aware of the fact that renewable energy would need to become cost-competitive with fossil fuel power in order to have a sustainable and lasting global impact. As one of the architects of Germany’s early, and thus expensive, move towards renewable energy, he calculated that economies of scale coupled with tech advances would lead to solar and wind becoming the cheapest sources for new electricity. He has post-humously been proven right, as these renewable energy sources are now the cheapest means for new electricity generation in most of the world’s countries.
Applying Scheer’s visionary thought process to today’s situation, it is now time to pick the low-hanging, ripe fruit from the tree while leaving the unripe fruit in the upper parts of the tree for later picking. This entails major investments in building out the clean technologies that are economically competitive today, such as solar power, wind power, and electric land transport, while simultaneously investing in research and development in those technologies that aren’t quite there yet, such as hybrid-electric propulsion for sea and air transport and in power-to-gas tech. A pragmatic and effective breakdown would look something like the following.
- Massively scale up inexpensive renewables such as solar and wind power on a global level:
This will be especially effective in the populous, developing nations in the world’s sunbelt that have growing power needs. Providing low-interest renewable energy loans to developing nations, while setting standards and timeframes for the replacement of legacy fossil fuel plants in industrialized nations would be highly effective, as an inexpensive build-out of solar and wind power constitutes the lowest-hanging fruit.
- Focus on electrification of ground transport in industrialized nations:
The rapidly developing advances in battery technology and a battery price curve that resembles the quick drop in the price of solar power modules a decade ago allow for a complete and rapid shift from fossil fuel vehicles to battery-electric vehicles in industrialized nations. As the price of batteries continues to drop, this shift will also quickly become technologically and economically feasible on a large scale in developing nations. The rapid pace of technological development, thanks to visionary companies such as Tesla, can ensure that it won’t make sense anymore to buy new ICE vehicles for ground transport from around the mid 2020s. Who would want to buy an ICE vehicle that will have little to no resale value, after all?
- Use biofuels exclusively for energy production in those areas of the energy economy where it is still technologically difficult to switch to renewable energy:
This entails reserving biofuels for use as fuels in air and sea transport, as well as for heating needs in colder countries. For example, it makes little sense to burn biogas from organic waste digester plants to produce electricity that could be sourced more economically from solar and wind power. Biogas would be much better utilized for heating needs. It also makes little sense to use biofuels for ground transport vehicles that can now feasibly be electric, when they could instead be used for long-distance air transport, which is much harder to electrify.
- Ensure that new infrastructure is designed and built for the future, not the past:
This entails making sure that newly constructed buildings and renovated buildings have integrated solar power systems, as the cost of solar power modules is now so low that it is very inexpensive to have them installed when construction is taking place anyway. Concurrently, new buildings should be charge ready, ie. they should be built with charging available for electric vehicles and they should be built in a manner that makes them energy-efficient. The power grid will also need to be re-structured, both in order to accommodate an increase of electricity from renewables feeding into the grid and to allow for electric vehicles charging. Another effective way to generate electricity where it is needed most would be to build solar power plants over the massive parking lots at malls and big stores while simultaneously providing electric vehicle charging there and at places of work.
- Investing in research and development of new technologies and technologies that are not yet quite able to provide the needed solutions:
Using the analogy of picking the low-hanging fruit, this would entail developing and building the ladder to climb up the tree and pick the fruit that will ripen in the future. This applies mostly to long-range air and sea transport, for which batteries are not yet advanced enough to make a serious difference. And to heating needs, where fossil oil and gas are still often difficult to replace. It also applies to advanced battery technologies in general, potential new transportation technologies like the Hyperloop, and possibly the ever-elusive promise of fusion power plants.
As shown in the bullet points above, there is a lot of low-hanging fruit available for the picking in the current transition to a global clean energy economy. Many things that would have been very expensive to do a mere decade or two ago, and would have demanded major sacrifices from citizens, are now technologically and economically feasible, even in developing nations. In fact, a transition to a clean energy economy even holds a promise of plenty, as there is lots of sun and wind to go around while fossil fuel sources have always been finite. A transition to a clean energy economy thus does not require a dogma of sacrifice anymore and is instead something that can be exciting, trigger human ingenuity, and provide more enjoyment and greater energy security to many people across the globe. After all, it’s much nicer to be able to cheaply fill your electric vehicle’s “gas tank” with sun from the solar panels on your roof than having to drive to the gas station in an ICE vehicle for expensive fill-ups. And it’s much safer and healthier for the more than a billion people who don’t have access to electricity to use solar lamps instead of kerosene lamps for their lighting needs.
Now that technological developments are proceeding so fast and are only going to accelerate, thanks to ever-faster computing power and increasing amounts of resources dedicated to clean technology, we stand on the cusp of a clean energy era that has the potential to be breathtaking and inspiring. There is no need to delay. We should rapidly, yet steadily, move forward in a pragmatic and efficient manner, picking the low-hanging fruit first while tech advances turn the ripening fruit higher above into the low-hanging fruit of tomorrow.